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dc.contributor.authorVelimirović, Jelenaen_US
dc.contributor.authorJanjić, Aleksandaren_US
dc.date.accessioned2021-05-19T08:55:37Z-
dc.date.available2021-05-19T08:55:37Z-
dc.date.issued2021-04-21-
dc.identifier.issn2073-8994-
dc.identifier.urihttp://researchrepository.mi.sanu.ac.rs/handle/123456789/4569-
dc.description.abstractThis paper deals with uncertainty, asymmetric information, and risk modelling in a complex power system. The uncertainty is managed by using probability and decision theory methods. More specifically, influence diagrams—as extended Bayesian network functions with interval probabilities represented through credal sets—were chosen for the predictive modelling scenario of replacing the most critical circuit breakers in optimal time. Namely, based on the available data on circuit breakers and other variables that affect the considered model of a complex power system, a group of experts was able to assess the situation using interval probabilities instead of crisp probabilities. Furthermore, the paper examines how the confidence interval width affects decision-making in this context and eliminates the information asymmetry of different experts. Based on the obtained results for each considered interval width separately on the action to be taken over the considered model in order to minimize the risk of the power system failure, it can be concluded that the proposed approach clearly indicates the advantages of using interval probability when making decisions in systems such as the one considered in this paper.en_US
dc.publisherMDPIen_US
dc.relation.ispartofSymmetryen_US
dc.subjectCircuit breakers | Crisp probability | Influence diagrams | Interval probability | Uncertaintyen_US
dc.titleRisk assessment of circuit breakers using influence diagrams with interval probabilitiesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/sym13050737-
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85105300265-
dc.contributor.affiliationComputer Scienceen_US
dc.contributor.affiliationMathematical Institute of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts-
dc.relation.firstpageArt. no. 737-
dc.relation.issue5-
dc.relation.volume13-
dc.description.rank~M22-
item.cerifentitytypePublications-
item.openairecristypehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf-
item.openairetypeArticle-
item.grantfulltextnone-
item.fulltextNo Fulltext-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-3745-3033-
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