Analyzing the Еffects of Мobility and Season on COVID-19 Cases Using Negative Binomial Regression: A European Case Study

Abstract

This paper develops a Generalized Linear Model using the Negative Binomial Regression with log link function to analyze the effects of mobility trends and seasons on COVID-19 cases. The data of four European countries was used, namely Austria, Greece, Italy, and Czech Republic. The dataset includes daily observations of registered COVID-19 cases, and the data of six types of mobility trends: retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacy, parks, transit stations, workplaces, and residential mobility for the period Feb 15 - Nov 15, 2020. The results suggest that the number of COVID-19 cases differs between seasons and different mobility trends.