Authors: Janković, Radmila 
Mihajlović, Ivan
Amelio, Alessia
Affiliations: Mathematical Institute of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts 
Title: Time Series Vector Autoregression Prediction of the Ecological Footprint based on Energy Parameters
First page: 55
Last page: 62
Conference: 5th Jubilee Virtual International Conference on Science Technology and Management in Energy, Niš, October 28-29, 2019
Issue Date: 2019
Rank: M33
ISBN: 978-86-80616-04-9
Sustainability became the most important component of world development, as countries worldwide fight the battle against the climate change. To understand the effects of climate change, the ecological footprint, along with the biocapacity should be observed. The big part of the ecological footprint, the carbon footprint, is most directly associated with the energy, and specifically fuel sources. This paper develops a time series vector autoregression prediction model of the ecological footprint based on energy parameters.The objective of the paper is to forecast the EF based solely on energy parameters and determine the relationship between the energy and the EF. The dataset included global yearly observations of the variables for the period 1971-2014. Predictions were generated for every variable that was used in the model for the period 2015-2024. The results indicate that the ecological footprint of consumption will continue increasing, as well as the primary energy consumption from different sources. However, the energy consumption from coal sources is predicted to have a declining trend.
Keywords: time series | ecological footprint | energy | vector autoregression | forecasting
Publisher: Research and Development Centar "Alfatec"

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