Authors: Janjić, Aleksandar
Velimirović, Jelena 
Velimirović, Lazar 
Affiliations: Mathematical Institute of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts 
Title: Fuzzy Bayesian Nets and Influence Diagrams with Cognitive Numerical Judgment of Imprecise Probabilities
First page: 149
Last page: 168
Related Publication(s): Applying Fuzzy Logic for the Digital Economy and Society
Issue Date: 2019
Rank: M42
ISBN: 978-3-030-03367-5
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-03368-2_8
The chapter will explain a connection between subjective uncertainty during the probability assessment and mental number representation of different probabilities expressed by approximate numbers. Subjective probabilities are represented as information granules described by linguistic terms and modeled as triangular fuzzy numbers. The proposed optimization functions proved to be efficient in determination of feasible probability bounds, yet corresponding to the human cognitive process. The usage of optimized fuzzy probabilities is illustrated on simple Influence diagram solving the e-commerce transaction. The quadratic programming model is proposed that can be easily solved, and simulation results are concurrent with the experimental findings of subjective probability assessment.
Keywords: Bayes nets | Influence diagram | Imprecise probability | E-commerce | Psychophysics | Trust
Publisher: Springer Link
Project: Research and development of energy efficient and environment friendly polygeneration systems based on renewable energy sources utilization 
Development of new information and communication technologies, based on advanced mathematical methods, with applications in medicine, telecommunications, power systems, protection of national heritage and education 

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