Risk analysis based on Bayesian networks and a multi-criteria decision-making method – selection of Circuit-breakers for the 110kv substations

Abstract

Literature that deals with risk analysis in energy sector shows that the use of Bayesian networks, as one of the methods for risk assessment in this context, is well recognized. Therefore, authors of this paper are using Bayesian networks and Analytic Hierarchy Process, which is also considered to be one of the most widely used multi-criteria decision-making methods, to determine the optimal circuit-breaker - oil, vacuum or SF6 – for the 110kV substations with regard to safety, economic and ecological risks. Comparing the alternatives (circuit-breaker) in relation to the criteria (safety, costs, environment), the authors determined which circuit-breaker should be used in order to obtain the lowest possible risk.